FIFA World Cup 2026 · Final results vs the value model
Expectations vs Reality
The market-value prediction, overwritten by the real results. vs Exp tracks who beat or fell short of the round their squad value seeded them into. See the full schedule →
🏁 Full time · 15 teams finished ahead of their value seeding, 14 behind.
Over / Under-achievers
Measured in knockout rounds reached vs the round each squad's market value seeded it into.
Every squad ranked by value, with the round it Reached against the Exp round its value seeded it into. Click a knockout team to trace its run below.
Reached result is final
#
Team
Value
Reached
Exp
vs Exp
1
🇫🇷France
€1.59bn
Semi-finals
Champions
▼ 2
2
🏴England
€1.47bn
Semi-finals
Final
▼ 1
3
🇪🇸Spain
€1.29bn
Champions
Semi-finals
▲ 2
4
🇵🇹Portugal
€1.03bn
Round of 16
Semi-finals
▼ 2
5
🇩🇪Germany
€962m
Round of 32
Quarter-finals
▼ 2
6
🇧🇷Brazil
€928m
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
▼ 1
7
🇦🇷Argentina
€853m
Final
Quarter-finals
▲ 2
8
🇳🇱Netherlands
€789m
Round of 32
Quarter-finals
▼ 2
9
🇳🇴Norway
€639m
Quarter-finals
Round of 16
▲ 1
10
🇧🇪Belgium
€568m
Quarter-finals
Round of 16
▲ 1
11
🇨🇮Ivory Coast
€538m
Round of 32
Round of 16
▼ 1
12
🇲🇦Morocco
€513m
Quarter-finals
Round of 16
▲ 1
13
🇸🇳Senegal
€483m
Round of 32
Round of 16
▼ 1
14
🇹🇷Turkiye
€474m
Group stage
Round of 16
▼ 2
15
🇸🇪Sweden
€414m
Round of 32
Round of 16
▼ 1
16
🇭🇷Croatia
€407m
Round of 32
Round of 16
▼ 1
17
🇺🇸United States
€402m
Round of 16
Round of 32
▲ 1
18
🇪🇨Ecuador
€369m
Round of 32
Round of 32
met
19
🇺🇾Uruguay
€364m
Group stage
Round of 32
▼ 1
20
🇨🇭Switzerland
€351m
Quarter-finals
Round of 32
▲ 2
21
🇨🇴Colombia
€310m
Round of 16
Round of 32
▲ 1
22
🇯🇵Japan
€296m
Round of 32
Round of 32
met
23
🇩🇿Algeria
€262m
Round of 32
Round of 32
met
24
🇬🇭Ghana
€244m
Round of 32
Round of 32
met
#
Team
Value
Reached
Exp
vs Exp
25
🇦🇹Austria
€243m
Round of 32
Round of 32
met
26
🇲🇽Mexico
€215m
Round of 16
Round of 32
▲ 1
27
🇨🇦Canada
€207m
Round of 16
Round of 32
▲ 1
28
🇨🇿Czechia
€188m
Group stage
Round of 32
▼ 1
29
🏴Scotland
€170m
Group stage
Round of 32
▼ 1
30
🇧🇦Bosnia-Herzegovina
€165m
Round of 32
Round of 32
met
31
🇵🇾Paraguay
€160m
Round of 16
Round of 32
▲ 1
32
🇨🇩DR Congo
€145m
Round of 32
Round of 32
met
33
🇰🇷South Korea
€139m
Group stage
Group stage
met
34
🇪🇬Egypt
€123m
Round of 16
Group stage
▲ 2
35
🇦🇺Australia
€89m
Round of 32
Group stage
▲ 1
36
🇺🇿Uzbekistan
€86m
Group stage
Group stage
met
37
🇹🇳Tunisia
€70m
Group stage
Group stage
met
38
🇨🇻Cape Verde
€62m
Round of 32
Group stage
▲ 1
39
🇭🇹Haiti
€56m
Group stage
Group stage
met
40
🇿🇦South Africa
€54m
Round of 32
Group stage
▲ 1
41
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia
€41m
Group stage
Group stage
met
42
🇳🇿New Zealand
€35m
Group stage
Group stage
met
43
🇵🇦Panama
€35m
Group stage
Group stage
met
44
🇮🇷Iran
€32m
Group stage
Group stage
met
45
🇨🇼Curaçao
€26m
Group stage
Group stage
met
46
🇮🇶Iraq
€21m
Group stage
Group stage
met
47
🇯🇴Jordan
€20m
Group stage
Group stage
met
48
🇶🇦Qatar
€20m
Group stage
Group stage
met
The Bracket · final
The bracket as it was played — every tie shows its final score. Hover or click a team to trace its run.
✓ Confirmed — qualified into the slot
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Semi-finals
Quarter-finals
Round of 16
Round of 32
🇪🇸Spain1
🇦🇷Argentina0
🇫🇷France0
🇪🇸Spain2
🇫🇷France2
🇲🇦Morocco0
🇵🇾Paraguay0
🇫🇷France1
🇩🇪Germany4p
🇵🇾Paraguay5p
🇫🇷France3
🇸🇪Sweden0
🇨🇦Canada0
🇲🇦Morocco3
🇿🇦S. Africa0
🇨🇦Canada1
🇳🇱Netherlands3p
🇲🇦Morocco4p
🇪🇸Spain2
🇧🇪Belgium1
🇵🇹Portugal0
🇪🇸Spain1
🇵🇹Portugal2
🇭🇷Croatia1
🇪🇸Spain3
🇦🇹Austria0
🇺🇸USA1
🇧🇪Belgium4
🇺🇸USA2
🇧🇦Bosnia0
🇧🇪Belgium3
🇸🇳Senegal2
🏴England1
🇦🇷Argentina2
🇳🇴Norway1
🏴England2
🇧🇷Brazil1
🇳🇴Norway2
🇧🇷Brazil2
🇯🇵Japan1
🇨🇮Ivory Coast1
🇳🇴Norway2
🇲🇽Mexico2
🏴England3
🇲🇽Mexico2
🇪🇨Ecuador0
🏴England2
🇨🇩DR Congo1
🇦🇷Argentina3
🇨🇭Switzerland1
🇦🇷Argentina3
🇪🇬Egypt2
🇦🇷Argentina3
🇨🇻Cape Verde2
🇦🇺Australia3p
🇪🇬Egypt5p
🇨🇭Switzerland4p
🇨🇴Colombia3p
🇨🇭Switzerland2
🇩🇿Algeria0
🇨🇴Colombia1
🇬🇭Ghana0
🏆
🇪🇸
Spain
World Champions
Groups
Group A
Team
Pts
vs Exp
1
🇲🇽Mexico
9
met
2
🇿🇦South Africa
4
▲ 3
3
🇰🇷South Korea
3
met
4
🇨🇿Czechia
1
▼ 3
Group B
Team
Pts
vs Exp
1
🇨🇭Switzerland
7
met
2
🇨🇦Canada
4
met
3
🇧🇦Bosnia-Herzegovina
4
met
4
🇶🇦Qatar
1
met
Group C
Team
Pts
vs Exp
1
🇧🇷Brazil
7
met
2
🇲🇦Morocco
7
met
3
🏴Scotland
3
met
4
🇭🇹Haiti
0
met
Group D
Team
Pts
vs Exp
1
🇺🇸United States
6
▲ 2
2
🇦🇺Australia
4
▲ 1
3
🇵🇾Paraguay
4
met
4
🇹🇷Turkiye
3
▼ 3
Group E
Team
Pts
vs Exp
1
🇩🇪Germany
6
met
2
🇨🇮Ivory Coast
6
met
3
🇪🇨Ecuador
4
met
4
🇨🇼Curaçao
1
met
Group F
Team
Pts
vs Exp
1
🇳🇱Netherlands
7
met
2
🇯🇵Japan
5
▲ 1
3
🇸🇪Sweden
4
▼ 1
4
🇹🇳Tunisia
0
met
Group G
Team
Pts
vs Exp
1
🇧🇪Belgium
5
met
2
🇪🇬Egypt
5
met
3
🇮🇷Iran
3
▲ 2
4
🇳🇿New Zealand
1
▼ 2
Group H
Team
Pts
vs Exp
1
🇪🇸Spain
7
met
2
🇨🇻Cape Verde
3
▲ 1
3
🇺🇾Uruguay
2
▼ 1
4
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia
2
met
Group I
Team
Pts
vs Exp
1
🇫🇷France
9
met
2
🇳🇴Norway
6
met
3
🇸🇳Senegal
3
met
4
🇮🇶Iraq
0
met
Group J
Team
Pts
vs Exp
1
🇦🇷Argentina
9
met
2
🇦🇹Austria
4
met
3
🇩🇿Algeria
4
met
4
🇯🇴Jordan
0
met
Group K
Team
Pts
vs Exp
1
🇨🇴Colombia
7
▲ 2
2
🇵🇹Portugal
5
▼ 2
3
🇨🇩DR Congo
4
met
4
🇺🇿Uzbekistan
0
met
Group L
Team
Pts
vs Exp
1
🏴England
7
met
2
🇭🇷Croatia
6
met
3
🇬🇭Ghana
4
met
4
🇵🇦Panama
0
met
Qualifying (top 2)Best third-placed
Best Third-Placed Race · final
Eight of the twelve third-placed teams advance to the Round of 32, ranked by points, then goal difference, then goals scored — FIFA's official order. Teams yet to kick off are seeded by squad value. The top eight are in; the rest drop out.
#
Team
Grp
Pl
GD
GF
Pts
Status
1
🇨🇩DR Congo
K
3
+1
4
4
In
2
🇸🇪Sweden
F
3
0
7
4
In
3
🇪🇨Ecuador
E
3
0
2
4
In
4
🇬🇭Ghana
L
3
0
2
4
In
5
🇧🇦Bosnia-Herzegovina
B
3
-1
5
4
In
6
🇩🇿Algeria
J
3
-2
5
4
In
7
🇵🇾Paraguay
D
3
-2
2
4
In
8
🇸🇳Senegal
I
3
+2
8
3
In
top 8 qualify ▲ · ▼ out
9
🇮🇷Iran
G
3
0
3
3
Out
10
🇰🇷South Korea
A
3
-1
2
3
Out
11
🏴Scotland
C
3
-3
1
3
Out
12
🇺🇾Uruguay
H
3
-1
3
2
Out
Final results from Transfermarkt · value seeding from squad market values · refreshed daily.
